There Is No Off Switch

There is no magic event — least of all a declaration from any level of government — that will make it instantly risk-free to resume all of the behaviors and events that make the coronavirus so infectious. So waiting for some such event, in those states that are still not opening up fast enough for you, might be a wait that never ends. Conversely, if you think that your area’s perhaps having already told you “it is safe to do what you used to do” is somehow an instant inoculation against this disease, you are dearly mistaken.

Instead, it will be 1000 times more effective and reasonable if we concentrate on coming to a common understanding of the factors that contribute to the risk.

The factors are proximity to many other people, particularly in enclosed spaces… and duration of more than 5 or 10 minutes, depending on the last scientifically inspired guess that is blowing in the wind.

To summarize from The Bromage Protocol:

Infection Risk= People X Duration X Proximity X Enclosure X Air Stagnation

And all of those factors must be put through the filter of two personal factors: your risk multipliers (such as age and overall health), and you scare factor plain-and-simple. Yes, it’s a scary disease if you’re not fortunate enough to be in the 80% of people who get minor symptoms.

The basis of this theory is that it takes a minimum number of virus particles (called virions) — a ‘minimum infectious dose,’ to get sick. And we do not get an infectious dose by walking by an infected person, or being 6 feet away from one for a few seconds unless they sneeze or cough on us. We do not get an infectious dose by being outside or in a large enough space where the air disperses or carries the virions away. We are most likely to get an infectious dose by sitting in the same place for more than 10 minutes when a lot of people or an infected person is close to us… and there is little fresh air.

With those risk factors, what circumstances are NOT believed to be significant risk factors?

1. I believe that all of the information is showing us that ‘touch transmission,’ which is causing an insane hurricane of wiping off every surface, is not how this virus is transmitted. Within hospitals, and within nursing homes, yes, touch transmission might explain a huge proportion of cases, but those are special places.
2. I don’t know what all of the fear is about toilet water being aerosolized, and public bathrooms being such a calamity. Turn on ventilator fans in large roadside bathrooms. Open the windows. For a portapotty, open the door for a few seconds before you go in. Don’t stick your head in the bowl. Get in and out of the public bathroom quickly.
3. Few opinions have speculated whether an infectious dose can enter the body directly from the air to the eyes. (I personally predict that this might be determined sooner or later to be a risk that makes masks seem moot.)

The goal is not to make the decision for others, but to share a common understanding. If we all have different understandings, we will have chaos.

If all of that understanding is correct, we can…

1. Socialize outside — I personally say ‘without masks’ — if we don’t spend multiple minutes face-to-face.
2. Go to small retailers if there are not a lot of people inside small stores, and if they let fresh air in and we don’t spend a long time inside.
3. Go to larger retailers if we don’t spend a long time inside.
4. Go to baseball games if you don’t spend time in stagnant air or huddled near infected people in concourses and lines. But we don’t know who is infected because we don’t have even statistical testing.