Better Baseball Stat for Men-Left-on-Base: LOB+

In baseball, what’s worse: A) a runner left on first who got there with 2 outs, or B) a runner left on third who got there as the lead-off batter, meaning with no outs?

If you can’t score a guy on third with no outs, you really suck, because all you need is one moderately long fly-ball even if it’s an easy out. You had 3 chances (outs) to move 1 bag. That’s compared to example B, where you had 1 chance to move 3 bags.

But baseball doesn’t account for this. The number should be multiplied appropriately for 1) how close the runner is to home, and 2) how few outs there are.

The formula for each runner left on base is:

• Runner’s base [1/2/3]
  times
• Number of outs remaining at the time runner initially got to his furthest base in the inning.

That word ‘initially’ deals with the situation of runners advancing. For instance…

• The first batter in an inning hits a double.
• The next strikes out.
• The third hits a single, resulting in first and third, one out.
• The next 2 strike out.

So the runner on third got to third with one out, not two. His LOB+ count is 3 * 2 = 6.

Examples:

• A runner on third with no outs is 3 x 3 = 9 LOB+ points (3rd position and 3 outs remaining).
• A runner on first with 2 outs (1 out remaining) is 1 x 1 = 1.
• A runner on first with 1 outs (2 outs remaining) is 1 x 2 = 2.
• A runner on first with 0 outs (3 outs remaining) is 1 x 3 = 3.

So let’s look at a game, the Phillies vs. Dodgers on July 10, 2024. Here are the inning counts:

Dodgers:

• LOB: 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 2, 0, 0… totaling 5 conventionally.
• LOB+: 2, 0, 0, 1, 3, 0, 8, 0, 0… totaling 14.

Phillies:

• LOB: 0, 1, 1, 2, 2, 0, 0, 0, totaling 6 conventionally.
• LOB+: 0, 3, 2, 6, 4, 0, 0, 0, x (no bottom of ninth needed)… totaling 15.

The Dodgers’ seventh inning with an “8” showed the timing subtlety from our example above, about when you determine a stranded runner’s LOB+ count. They had first and third with one out then got two more outs. So the man on first counted as “2” and and the man on third counted as “6.” If you only looked at the state of affairs at the moment before the final out was recorded you’d see “first and third, 2 outs” and count them as 1+3=4, but they were stranded from 1 out, not 2.

The example game doesn’t reveal any hidden insight uncovered by my LOB+ proposal… since both the conventional and plus versions were only 1 apart for each team. And the winning team had one more by either measure. Add to that the fact that it’s possible that winning teams GENERALLY leave more runners on base because they simply get more runners.

Only time will tell if there’s added insight by this greater level of detail.